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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 15

Chicago Bears 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 15-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model