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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(12:27) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to MIA 16, Center-57-K.Canaday. 18-P.Williams pushed ob at MIA 30 for 14 yards (24-B.Snell).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.28 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model