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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(11:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model