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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(5:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.75 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model