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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick sacked at PIT 35 for -4 yards (97-C.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.78 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP