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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to MIA 10, Center-57-K.Canaday. 18-P.Williams ran ob at MIA 29 for 19 yards (33-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.54 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -2.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP