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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 37

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short middle to 13-J.Washington (33-J.Wiltz).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.11 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT +0.83 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model