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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 68

Detroit Lions 24 – New York Giants 19

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to NYG 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.79 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model