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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 53

New York Giants 19 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to DET 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-D.Amendola to DET 20 for 4 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.78 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model