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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 77

New York Giants 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to DET 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.42 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP