Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 84

Houston Texans 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 9-B.Anger punts 49 yards to LV 35, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-T.Davis to LV 38 for 3 yards (57-B.Scarlett). PENALTY on LV-32-D.Leavitt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 38. Punt Hangtime: 4.69s

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.04 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model