Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:48) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to HOU 19, Center-47-T.Sieg. 14-D.Carter pushed ob at HOU 32 for 13 yards (87-F.Moreau). PENALTY on HOU-58-P.Kalambayi, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 32. Punt Hangtime: 4.69s

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP

55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.93 EP
45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -2.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model