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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(12:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end ran ob at HOU 43 for 9 yards (25-E.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model