Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 63

Houston Texans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(9:28) 9-B.Anger punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. Punt Hangtime: 4.75s

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.93 EP
61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model