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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 62

Houston Texans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to LV 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-D.Harris to LV 24 for 14 yards (51-D.Cole). PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LV 10. Punt Hangtime: 5.16s

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.35 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP