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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:19) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to TB 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 22-T.Logan pushed ob at TEN 34 for 40 yards (44-K.Correa).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model