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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:50) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 6, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model