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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.77 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model