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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.34 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP