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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:28) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to TEN 8, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.03 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP