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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to TB 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.52 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -2.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model