4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 52

Tennessee Titans 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:46) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to TB 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 28-V.Hargreaves.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model