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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 72

Washington Commanders 6 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 5-T.Way punts 63 yards to MIN 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-32-J.Moreland.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.35 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model