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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 9, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model