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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 25

Washington Commanders 6 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.86 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model