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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to MIN 34 for no gain (94-D.Payne; 20-L.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model