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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 19 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(:32) 25-A.Mattison left tackle to WAS 4 for 3 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.43 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP