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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 81

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to PHI 38, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 38, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model