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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 72

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.67 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model