Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 82

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 12

(4:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to PHI 37, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 82, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model