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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 12 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 1-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CHI 6, Center-45-R.Lovato. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 7 for 1 yard (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.01 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model