Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 59

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 12

(:34) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to PHI 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.32 EP
53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -2.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model