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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to CHI 25 for 15 yards (39-E.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.67 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model