Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Chicago Bears 7

(1:10) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CHI 42, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.65 EP
62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 88, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model