Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Chicago Bears 14

(10:23) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to CHI 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 30 for no gain (50-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.69 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model