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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 52

Chicago Bears 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to PHI 11, Center-48-P.Scales. 43-D.Sproles MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 9, ball out of bounds at PHI 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.98 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model