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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 9

Cleveland Browns 6 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 4-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 9, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model