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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 5

Cleveland Browns 12 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 6-B.Mayfield right guard to DEN 5 for no gain (51-T.Davis; 58-V.Miller). Cleveland challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:16.)

The Three Options

GO +3.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model