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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 21

Cleveland Browns 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 4-A.Seibert 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.61 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model