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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 2-A.Rosas 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.27 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP