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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 7

New York Giants 9 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.30 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model