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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 34

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-B.Maher 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.30 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model