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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 47

New York Giants 12 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to DAL 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie. PENALTY on NYG-39-E.Penny, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.98 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model