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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to NYG 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 15-G.Tate to NYG 35 for 15 yards (23-D.Thompson; 57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.79 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP