4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 10

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.54 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 10, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP