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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 8

New York Giants 12 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(:30) 2-A.Rosas 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 8, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP