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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 49

Dallas Cowboys 30 – New York Giants 18

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to NYG 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.07 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model