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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 36

New York Giants 18 – Dallas Cowboys 30

What Actually Happened

(:47) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 15-G.Tate to DAL 24 for 12 yards (54-J.Smith; 27-J.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.05 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP