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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 75

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to DAL 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at DAL 26 for 9 yards (48-J.Tauaefa).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.18 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 75, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model