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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 8-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model